Saturday, 3 October 2020

Airfreight and Covid

 Airfreight in the UK is divided into 2 separate and distinct types. The 1st is aircraft totally given over to bringing in and taking out airfreight, and the two main airports in the UK for freighters are East Midlands (built at the top of the "Golden Triangle") and Stanstead (built at the right hand point of the triangle).

The Golden Triangle
Spanning from Northamptonshire up the M1 to East Midlands Airport, and West as far as Tamworth area, the Golden Triangle is busting with logistics names. As well as being in proximity to the huge distribution centres of supermarkets and high street stores, Midlands-based supply chain companies enjoy access to over 90% of the UK population within 4 hours drive. And with the building of the inland port nearby to EMA this will only grow the sector.
Golden Triangle Advantages
As well as the giants of UK haulage, smaller independent logistics companies are also numerous in this area; typically based in logistics centres. Proximity to major motorways, notably the M1 and M6, means that major cities such as London and Manchester are not difficult to reach from the Golden Triangle.
The other advantage of being based in the Midlands is that it’s not London! The capital city may be the epicentre for arts, finance and the legal profession; but it isn’t necessarily somewhere you’d chose as base for a logistical operation. Aside from being less accessible to the North and Scotland, London’s huge demand and scarcity of property means rental for a typical premises is much more expensive than in the heart of England.
There is no official precise measurement of exactly what constitutes the Golden Triangle, but it pretty much covers Leicestershire, Northamptonshire, Warwickshire, plus parts of Staffordshire and Derbyshire. Daventry International Rail Freight Terminal (DIRFT) contains 1 million square feet of Tesco warehousing space, and rivals Asda have several units less than 20 miles away in Magna Park.
It’s no surprise, therefore, that the Midlands has close to 150 million square feet of warehouse space: more than twice the combined warehousing activity of London, Scotland, and Wales.
Thanks David Green
You will see why this is important when the figures for the 8 months of 2020 are examined.


The 2nd is what is known as bellyhold (This is where long haul passenger aircraft offset the cost of freight carried in the hold with the price passengers pay for their seat). In previous years this meant that airfreight costs were up to 4X cheaper than if carried in a freighter aircraft and has been instrumental it the rise of Heathrow (and Gatwick to a lesser extent) because Heathrow has (up to 2019) carried 2/3rds of all the UK's airfreight.
Covid-19
With the collapse of passenger traffic in 2020 due to the rise of the Covid-19 pandemic it will be interesting to see just what affect the loss of bellyhold has had on the overall amount of freight carried in aircraft.
Firstly a starting point using Government figures and to put airfreight into perspective, by weight only 1/2 of 1% of all freight carried in the UK is carried by air.
Of that figure 2/3rds goes through Heathrow the biggest passenger terminal in the UK and 5% is carried in dedicated freighters leaving 95% as bellyhold and by far this is the most popular way of flying in airfreight.

So to the figures

What you can see from the CAA figures is total freight carried, from all UK reporting airports, is tonnage is down by 25% with Gatwick (-68%), Heathrow (-31%), Luton (-16%) and outside London Manchester is down by 55%.
Most notably these are bellyhold dependent airports whilst East Midlands (up 1%) and Stanstead (up 7%) have bucked the trend because they have (mainly) night services dealing with air freighters.
Looking at reasons for this drop one has to ask is the 25% reduction in airfreight due to lower numbers of passenger flights or due to the recession brought on by Covid.
The answer is most likely the recession as the % of freight carried at the London Centric airports has remained fairly stable. In 2009 this was 77.22%, in 2019 this was 76.36% and in the 8 months of 2020 it has been 73.77%.

The two airports that have benefitted have been East Midlands and Stanstead where the overall % of the airfreight carried has increased by 5% and 4% to 18% and 13% respectively.
Heathrow has seen its share drop by 4% to 58% and Gatwick has seen its share drop by half to just 1.85%.

Conclusion
The main driver for the 25% reduction in airfreight carried to UK airports in 2020 has not been the lack of passenger aircraft flying long haul rather it is the reduced demand for goods because of the worldwide recession. there has been a drift away from bellyhold but this has only meant a small increase in freighter only aircraft landing at EMA and Stanstead and as passenger numbers start to recover the cost of flying freight in the belly of passenger aircraft will mean the use of freighter only cargo will drop back to pre-covid levels due to the cost savings to be made.

Tuesday, 15 September 2020

What the DCO means for Freudman

 

Report on Freudmann Tipple International Ltd

This company was incepted on 19/4/2005 and according to Tony he had been let go by Planestation in February 2005 5 months before Planestation collapsed with debts exceeding £25 Million.

Tony had been appointed a director of London Manston Airport PLC in 25/7/1997 where he oversaw the day to day running of Manston airport for Wiggins PLC. He stayed in that role until 28/2/2005. The company has since been dissolved. Wiggins itself became Planestation PLC and as stated collapsed with debts. The airport was transferred to Infratil by the receiver in August 2005 for a sum that was eventually written off.

Tony also was tasked with buying up disused airfields abroad. These airfields had in common tracts of land within the boundary that were suitable for housebuilding which was Wiggin’s main development forte.

From public announcements in 2003

“The Company's preference in developing its network of airports has been to acquire the entire interest at an airport. Nonetheless where opportunities present themselves the Company could either take a minority shareholding or an operating concession, such as that at Melbourne Airport, Florida.

The Directors believe property development at the airports within the Planestation network to be strategically important. Accordingly the Group focuses on airports which either have landside areas available as development land or alternatively adjacent land which may be acquired for development. The Group also focuses on sites where development funding is expected to be available from outside sources, in particular grants from Government, the European Union or other public sector bodies.

In August 1999, the Company completed its acquisition of London Manston Airport, since which time it has expanded its portfolio of interests in airports considerably to include airport services. These airport operations are to be included within the Planestation brand.

In 2001, the Group acquired the two strategically placed airports in Germany at Schwerin-Parchim (now Baltic Airport Schwerin-Parchim) and at Lahr, in the Black Forest. It has also secured interests in the smaller regional airports of Odense, Denmark in April 2000, and Cuneo in Northern Italy in February 2001. LineAE airport in Pilsen, Czech Republic was acquired in August 2000.

Most recently the Group has entered into an agreement to develop international air traffic at Melbourne airport in Florida.

To finance the initial projected cash outflows from airport operations and acquisitions the Company increased its net borrowings primarily through borrowing from the Mezzanine Lenders.”

https://www.investegate.co.uk/wiggins-group-plc---230-/rns/issue-of-equity-issue-of-debt/200312101449311006T/

His colleague at LMA Plc Paul Howard Tipple was appointed a director on 29/7/2003 and resigned on 31/3/2005. Paul’s directorship was short lived at FT Int Ltd as he resigned on the 4/4/2007 after being a founding director.

Attached at Appendix A is Freudmann’s CV however it is unknown as to whether he earnt monies whilst asset stripping these dissolved companies. All that is known is that after he left Planestation he set up Freudmann Tipple International Ltd and each set of accounts is included on this report. FT International’s accounts are the bare minimum Balance sheet reported to Companies House and to not include a profit and loss report however the end of year balance sheet seems to show that annually they carried forward losses to 30/9/2008 then a positive balance as debts accrued have been paid off. In 2010 to 2012 it remains a positive then the debts started building again. In the accounts ending March 2013 a “loan” of over £20K is paid to Tony leading to a run of negative results and by March 2016 this had accrued to -£73101.

This all changed with the formation of Riveroak Operations and the use of Freudmann Tipple to hold monies for RO and it seems collect payment for providing services. All debts were wiped off and a positive balance for the last 3 years. With this change comes a Corporation tax bill shown on the accounts and assuming a Corp tax rate of 19% Tony’s company has achieved a pre-tax profit at March 2017 of £154K, at March 2018 of £214K and at March 2019 of £282K.

At the same time at year end TF International held RO monies of £176146, £ 214136 and £282378 respectively. One might ask why an organisation which has allegedly spent £38M on Manston needs to use Freudmann Tipple International Ltd to pay their bills.

The accounts such as they are will be found at appendix C

Tipple’s resignation is at Appendix D

FOI to KCC at Appendix E

 Appendix A 

Courtesy of Herne Bay Matters

TONY FREUDMANN CV

1946      Born Wrexham North Wales

1964 – 1967        LSE - Law (LLB)

1967 – 1982        Legal Practice (Commercial Law). This includes 9 years as a Deputy District Judge

N.B. The title District Judge did not come in to being until 2000. There were stipendiary Magistrates so whether he was a stipe or not isn’t clear. His claim to have been a DDJ for 9 years means that when appointed he would have only had 4 years Post Qualification Experience on appointment. The requisite for a Stipe as per DDJ was a minimum 7 years PQE and then very unusual.

1982 – 1989        Shropshire County Council - Leader

The info regarding TF's 'early years' comes from various statements that he has made. However he was apparently working for the Shrewsbury firm Wace, Morgan & Salt in 1986 as he was dealing with the probate of one Daphne Newman

1989      Founded a consultancy “Advising public authorities on accessing structural funding from the EU”

1994      Joins Wiggins as Senior Vice President (Wiggins is a land management and property development company formerly Southend Sand & Gravel Co founded in 1948)

1999      Wiggins buy Kent International Airport Ltd

Other Wiggin’s airports while Freudmann was responsible for airport acquisition:

Odense, Denmark - 2000 Local Authority running the airport enter joint venture with Planestation. Local Authority end agreement essentially on breach of contract seeking $1.7 m. This was arbitrated down to $850,000 re unpaid rent.

Pilsen, Czech Republic - 2000 takes on lease from Czech MoD.  $279 million deal with Bae to redevelop as commercial airport. This does not seem to have got very far and the local operating company PlaneStation Pilsen was sold to Babcock Brown on the demise of the parent company. Eventually in 2013 the MoD terminated the agreement on basis of breach of contract.

Lahr Airport - A history of failure. Sold to Babcock & Brown when Planestation enter voluntary liquidation.

Schwerin Parkim, Northern Germany - Didn’t pay the rent. Kicked out Feb 2005 and settled for 3 million Euro.

Cuneo, Levaldigi, Italy - Take 43% stake in airport 2001. Withdraw having made heavy losses 2004, despite heavy funding from the Italian Government to develop the airport.

Ajman, UAE - Grand $800 million project to build airport (a scheme seen in the industry as bizarre) is abandoned in 2003

Borgond (Alba), Hungary - June 2004 Contracts with local authority for joint investment. A year later Planestation goes under without any significant work commencing.

Smyrna, USA - June 1999 Announce ambitious proposals for this joint military / civilian airport which is going to be their corporate HQ. Withdraw from project 2003 citing issues re the expansion of the runway which was strongly opposed locally.

Melbourne, Florida USA - June 2004 Sights set on this airport to replace Smyrna as US base. Deal would involve considerable funding from local and federal governments. The project is in development when Planestation go under.

All of the above were former or existing military bases, targeted because “ideal airports are former military bases with ample availability of surrounding land which can be developed using the real estate experience of Wiggins”

2004                     Wiggins Group PLC becomes Planestation PLC

2005 Feb              Ousted from Planestation PLC.

“Tony Freudmann also had the following to say regarding personal accusations thrown at him “I was responsible for Manston’s conversion to a civilian airport, building it up as a cargo airport and then being ‘let go’ when I protested that the EUJet plan made no economic sense.””

Martin May was brought in to try and save Planestation. Says May in Sept 2004:

‘When I first arrived here I realised that the commercial “vision” of the previous management was merely vapour.

“When I came here, we were spending money to no particular end. Last year, we spent £11 million maintaining dormant airports. The previous year, £13.5 million. It wasn’t too hard to work out that revenue generation built on a scalable business model was what was needed.

Ever the pragmatist, May acknowledges much remains to be done. ‘I am a sensible businessman. I’m taking one step at a time. The board here has collective goals and every individual employee here has personal goals. We are still not profitable but the days when this company was an acquirer of assets and a stealer of ideas is over. Our target is to be cash neutral by March next year. I intend to make it.’ “

2005 Apr              Founds Freudmann Tipple International Ltd (He always refers to this as FT International Ltd. This in fact is a footwear company in Surrey with no connection to Freudmann). Is this the same Tipple who was CEO at Manston?

2005 July             Banks pull the plug on Planestation PLC / EU Jet. Enter Infratil

2007                     FTI provides consultancy services to Infratil working on a route from Manston to Norfolk, Virginia. This doesn’t get off the ground.

2009 March        Becomes a Director of Active Energy Active Energy Ltd founded as a subsidiary of Steven Freudmann’s Cinpart. Cinpart having 65% Equity, 10% Alpha Prospects (TF & SF) with 25% of Equity to Steven Coombs who as SDC Industries manufactures VoltageMaster Energy saving devices.

2011 Sept            FTI still trading. KCC pays fees of £4000 for APTC Staff.

2012 Feb              Founds SDCI Ltd with Nadav Zohar (Believed to be related to the above energy saving businesses) No accounts filed.

2012 June            Working with Integeral Investments (Directors Sanjeev Joshi & Darin Soards who appear again in negotiations with Anne Gloag re Manston. One of the Investors is the notorious Douglas Maggs) Integeral is already insolvent when agreement reached with the local authorities in Lahr to run the Black Forest Airport, previously run by Wiggins / Planestation.

2013 Jan              Integeral wound up.

2013 Feb              still representing a now non-existent ‘Integeral’ in negotiations at Lahr.

2013 June            Forms Annax Aviation and Annax Aviation Airports, registering these companies at the address of former Lahr investor, Douglas Maggs.

2013 July             Annax enters the tendering process to run Lahr. Bid is unsuccessful.

2014 Jan              Makes enquiries re the potential for house building on the Northern Grass at Manston Airport

2014 29 Jan         Annax in negotiation to purchase Manston from Gloag. Heads of Agreement signed. Falls through. (Likely fronting for Integeral team)

2014 24 March   Sir Roger Gale announces that a consortium is desirous to purchase Manston from Anne Gloag. (Very likely TF and Integeral)

2014 27 March   Letter of Offer made by the consortium

2014 2 Apr                          Offer withdrawn by consortium

2014 4 May                        Fronts RiverOak LLC bid to purchase Airport from AG.

2014 28 May                      Founds Dublin Registered Company AA Leasing Partners Limited (Aviation leasing, Aircraft dismantling, parts)

 Travel Industry Involvement

Some of the acquisitions were direct whilst others were made through Alpha Consolidations Ltd and Alpha Prospects PLC. His foray into the Travel Industry is inextricably linked with his younger brother Steven Freudmann who has been involved in the travel industry from the founding in 1967 of Majestic Travel. He was a director of ABTA for 18 years and its President between 1997-2000.  He resigned his Directorship after calls to do so from creditors of Seligo / Unpackaged and rather than face awkward questions from the board re the collapse of and involvement in, the Unpackaged Group run by Tony and Alpha Prospects (Stevens baby as well).

Tony’s first acquisition would seem to have been in March 2007 acquiring Carefree Travel 22/3/07 and Radiant Travel 22/3/07, also Travel Club of Upminster, (founded in 1936) Upminster Travel, Austria Travel 19/1/09, Majestic Travel (Steven Freudmann’s company) 6/2/09 and Seligo Holidays 23/2/2009.

Useful summary from Travel Trade Gazette

             Steven Freudmann is a director of Alpha Prospects, a plc listed on the junior Plus stock market and set up in 2008 to invest in travel companies.

             His brother Tony Freudmann was a director of Unpackaged Holidays Ltd of which Seligo was a trading name.

             Tony Freudmann is also a director of The Travel Club, the company which bought the assets of Unpackaged Holidays.

             Tony Freudmann is also a director of Unpackaged’s parent company, UHN Ltd, of which Alpha Prospects has an option to acquire.

             Tony Freudmann is also a director of Seligo Holidays Ltd, which was set up in February and could now become the trade arm of The Travel Club.

             Alpha Prospects also has an option to acquire Alpha Consolidations Ltd, which owns The Travel Club Ltd.

 Net result of TF’s involvement in Travel Industry was the rapid demise of a number of long established operators.  None of the travel companies seems to have survived

 

Lists of Companies he has been or is currently a Director of:-




Appendix B

Planestation: turnaround from hell

Losses of £73 million, an ousted management team and huge overheads are just three of the factors that have plagued airports and property group Planestation – yet one entrepreneur is aiming to make the business profitable.

Date: 01 September 2004

Article: Analysis

Losses of £73 million, an ousted management team and huge overheads are just three of the factors that have plagued airports and property group Planestation – yet one entrepreneur is now aiming to make the business profitable.

'I don’t think I’ve got an easy job, that’s for sure,’ is how Martin May, one of the UK’s foremost turnaround practitioners, describes the task before him at troubled airports and property group Planestation.

To anyone who has a passing knowledge of this group, his comments will smack of extreme understatement, because, up till now, Planestation has been one of the most woeful ventures ever to grace the London Stock Exchange.

Over the past ten years the group, previously known as Wiggins, has raised more money – north of around £115 million – than its actual market valuation. With this cash it built up an international chain of seven (hitherto largely dormant) airports and an assortment of property interests and assets in the UK. Apart from property disposals, it has generated little in the way of revenues, milked its investor base for all they were worth and produced gargantuan annual losses – in the past 48 months alone it has lost more than £73 million.

The group was only saved from complete collapse at the turn of the year when no less than £46 million was raised from City institutions to repay an almost equal amount of mezzanine finance that was accruing interest at 28 per cent (yes, we’re not lying, twenty-eight per cent!). After this fundraising, chief executive Oliver Iny walked the plank. He was shortly followed by the chairman, Richard Bernays and non-executive director Lady Rona Delves Broughton.

Knowledge is strength

Even for May, who has engineered a few spectacular turnarounds over the past ten years, transforming Planestation into a proper business represents something of a special task. But he exudes charm and calm in equal measure and says he is ‘excited’, not perturbed, by the challenge ahead.

‘I know my strengths and weaknesses, as all chief executives should. I am not good at business development, I am not a specialist in any particular sector. What I am good at is fixing things.’

Fixing things is indeed his forte. Since leaving a global packaging specialist in the late 90s May has worked wonders at a very diverse selection of companies. Among his most successful commercial reinventions has been Gresham Computing, where he transformed the loss-making, indebted venture into a profitable re-financed concern within six months.

His most recent project has been Cape, where he is still chairman. He joined in June 2002 after it had leaked so much cash its shares had bombed and debts were topping £50 million. Now, it is trading profitably, its debts are negligible and, in response, the shares have soared tenfold.

A meticulous 12-month plan

Says May, ‘in distressed business you meet many similar problems. There are always immediate cash concerns, the incumbent management are very often “blockers” of change, margins are weak and staff morale is non-existent.

’When I come on board I engender a 12-month time- and task-orientated plan to get the ship afloat. It’s about real business goals, revenue generation and management inspiration.’

For May, the first quarter in his standard recovery plan is all about ‘stopping unnecessary spending immediately’. He also identifies non-core assets that can be off-loaded for much needed cash.

The next three months is then about establishing ‘short-term corporate and financial goals’ to ensure that by the third quarter ‘management changes are in place and a temporary platform built to start developing a viable future strategy’. The last three months of his first year is then devoted to ‘really making a step change to take the business forward’.

Hard medicine

The first six months at Planestation have, by and large, followed this philosophy to the letter. ‘When I first arrived here I realised that the commercial “vision” of the previous management was merely vapour. Like many failing concerns, it was truly a lifestyle business. It was full of hobbies.’

To reinforce the point he highlights the fact that annual head office costs were no less than £7.8 million. This figure included the £600,000 it cost to lease Planestation’s wonderfully indulgent Georgian offices on London’s grandiose Berkeley Square. Head office costs have been slashed and the group has relocated to a small space at the back of the building. The rest is being sub-let.

Another ‘pet project’ he put to the sword was the previous management’s hare-brained attempt to build a 1.4-mile-long grandstand (designed by leading signature architect Lord Foster) at its property site in East London. This was part of its overall plan to build a ‘London City Racecourse’. Says May, ‘A total of £2.8 million was spent on this design, which, unsurprisingly, failed to get planning permission.’

Beyond cost-cutting

On the finance front, a £5 million cash injection was completed recently, with most of the new investors being tempted in by May’s new realism and much progress has been made on the actual business.

Of the group’s seven airports, three have been designated core and revenues are at last beginning to tumble in.

At Kent International, Planestation’s flagship asset, passenger services are finally up and running following the launch of Europe’s newest airline, EUJet. Planestation invested £2 million for a 30 per cent stake in this airline. Two planes are operating, and the plan is to have seven on the go by next year. The other major development at this site was the final completion of a Border Inspection Post (one of only eight in the UK). This, it is hoped, will become a serious destination for those shipping fresh produce and other cargo into the UK.

At the group’s Lahr airport in Germany’s Black Forest, charter flights are landing and taking off and plans are afoot to increase cargo capacity. Over in the US, Planestation’s plans to take holiday-makers from the UK and Europe to Florida are developing rapidly.

Property solutions

As for its property division, May is in negotiations to sell the group’s residential property interests in Liverpool. Many now reckon that due to his patience, he is likely to reel in more than the £9 million previously mooted by analysts. In Oxfordshire, a future residential development is at the planning stage and in East London, a revised (and more sensible) proposal for a racetrack has been resubmitted. £30 million, say commentators, is what could be raised over the short- to medium-term from three-to-four sites.

Says May, ‘When I came here, we were spending money to no particular end. Last year, we spent £11 million maintaining dormant airports. The previous year, £13.5 million. It wasn’t too hard to work out that revenue generation built on a scalable business model was what was needed.’

Ever the pragmatist, May acknowledges much remains to be done. ‘I am a sensible businessman. I’m taking one step at a time. The board here has collective goals and every individual employee here has personal goals. We are still not profitable but the days when this company was an acquirer of assets and a stealer of ideas is over. Our target is to be cash neutral by March next year. I intend to make it.’

 http://www.growthbusiness.co.uk/the-entrepreneur/be-an-entrepreneur/198/planestation-turnaround-from-hell.thtml (editor’s note: This link no longer active)

Appendix C


Appendix D


Appendix E

Dear Kent County Council,

Tony Freudmann was paid by Kent County Council for his consultancy work on Manston Airport on the following dates

 

Invoice Amount Date

 

· 101/3 £11,456.25 24/10/2005

 

· 101/6 £9,106.25 04/01/2006

 

· 101/9 £5,245.63 12/03/2006

 

· 101/10 £6,102.69 09/04/2006

 

· 101/15 £4,626.56 14/08/2006

 

· 101/2 £29,081.25 09/09/2006

 

· 101/16 £6,431.75 05/10/2006

 

· 101/17 £7,635.26 01/11/2006

 

· 101/50 £5,299.43 06/12/2006

 

· 101/19 £14,633.24 08/12/2006

 

· 101/26 £7,887.74 03/01/2007

 

· 101/25 £17,379.59 07/02/2007

 

· 101/29 £9,944.19 11/03/2007

 

· 101/37 £4,800.00 01/07/2007

 

· 101/1 £6,462.50 01/08/2007

 

· 101/58 £12,126.00 17/05/2008

 

· 101/68 £6,049.40 23/09/2008

 

· 101/82 £11,646.00 13/02/2009

 

Could I have copies of any reports associated with these payments or any other relevant correspondence associated with them

 

Yours faithfully,

Totals £176K

KCC’s response

So in conclusion after a working life which has got precisely nowhere with many thwarted plans it would seem someone is looking at a retirement plan.



Wednesday, 2 September 2020

Statistics, more statistics and polls

Much is being made of the local support for Manston Airport by the people who want the airport back however to back up their claims they are relying on Facebook polls conducted on groups who support the airport creating their own inbuilt bias. 

The only recognised polling company in recent times who have conducted a poll are MORI and I will be discussing the findings in this blogpost.

First thing to say is the poll was conducted between March/April 2005 and just 500 telephone calls were made out of a population of 130,000 residents. Mori state the following:

"A representative sample of 500 Thanet residents was interviewed by telephone. Quotas were set on age, sex and work status to reflect the known status of the area as recorded in the 2001 census. Because the sampling methodology involves making a ‘1 in n’ selection from a full list of domestic telephone numbers (digits from which have already been randomised to take account of ex-directory numbers), each household has the same chance of selection for interview. As there are more households in urban and suburban areas, more interviews will take place in areas in which population density is higher"

and further

"It is important to note at this early stage that we place greater emphasis on the results from the telephone survey. This exercise is scientifically sampled and is not as prone to self-selection on the part of respondents or bias caused by nonresponse as is the self-completion consultation questionnaire. A table is appended which shows the overall population profile for Thanet, the respondent profile for the telephone survey, as well as a respondent profile for the consultation questionnaires. Given that the respondent profiles are so different, it is inadvisable to make comparisons between the two."

Further they were given postcodes by TDC to identify those under the flightpath as follows:

"We also run sub-group analysis on residents living under the flight path and those living away from it. The flight path is defined as postal districts CT7, CT11 and CT12. All other postal sectors fall outside of the flight path."

CT7 covers Birchington, CT12 Minster and Manston and CT11 much of Ramsgate.

It is also important to remember at the time of the poll Manston was still a going concern having in 1998 been bought from the Ministry of Defence by the Wiggins group and had recently changed their name to Planestation. Within 3 months of this poll both EUjet and Planestation had collapsed with debts exceeding £25M.

The poll was commissioned by TDC for the express need of revising the written agreement (S106) as the existing one was considered too "woolly" and allowed the airport operators to ignore the rules on Night Flights, Noise and environmental risks.

Firstly the Poll tries to understand, of the 500 respondents, just how much they actually used the airport for holidays and business travel. This is the response.

From this it is clear that few actually use it for flights and remember in 2005 EUjet are offering holiday flights to 16 holiday destinations in Fokker 100 aircraft.
So if so few use the airport the question is why?, and what does that mean for the current plans by RSP. Remember in 2005 130000 people live in Thanet which means 3/4 don't use it.

So how many are aware of Planestation's plans to expand services?
This first graph shows that 80% of the 500 knew something about the plans, some more than others however few knew about the legal protections that a S106 brought to curb the excesses of the airport management.

When those who did know about the plans were asked a further question as to whether they support or oppose this is the response 

So remembering only 400 knew about the plans 85% of this 400 tend to or are strongly supportive of the plans. This means of the overall 500 68% (340) indicate support. The reasons they gave for their support was broken down into the following areas:

Employment prospects turn out to be the most popular reason cited, however as an indicator this seems even today to be a reason but this very seldom turns out to be true. Even though Planestation collapsed the new company Infratil never managed to create a job bonanza and when it finally collapsed in 2014 only 144 people were made redundant. Even the Examination inspectors stated in their comprehensive report that jobs were being overstated. Their final conclusion was:
To continue the reasons for opposing the expansion were as follows:
The Poll asked the respondents about their quality of life in Thanet and what was important to them:

Clearly only 8% of the 500 though being close to an airport was important which closely mirrors the 75% who don't even use the airport. Clearly Facebook polls that have been conducted online attract a different grouping than a telephone poll and shows in the wider community people aren't as excised about the airport than those who engage do. The issue for the airport operator is that without the local catchment area an airport on the North Kent coast miles from London will always fail no matter how much money you pump into it. This might also indicate why Tony Freudmann (RSP Director and previous MD at Planestation) stated "passengers were the death of Manston".

A wider consultation exercise was also undertaken by Thanet District Council. Postal self-completion questionnaires were sent out as inserts in “Thanet Matters”, copies of which were delivered to every household in the District Council area. The same questionnaire was also placed on the Thanet District
Council website. In total, 2,134 postal questionnaires were completed, and 206 questionnaires were completed online between February and June 2005. These wider consultations attracted the more energised respondents and their responses differed from the Telephone survey. What they thought the problems were are different:



The full 68 page report is available however reading it it becomes apparent that the reasons given for the support for expansion "Jobs" has been oversold by almost all airports in the UK when they want to expand and in Manston's case this has been exposed because of 20 years of overselling by the airport operators. It is unsurprising that people crave improving employment prospects especially for the young  in Thanet but as history has shown Manston dreams are a cruel joke.

Thursday, 30 July 2020

Five Big Ones

Tony Freudmann's latest foray into the land of propaganda seems to have been prompted by adverse comments because more than just the faithful have now been shown the extent of the noise and disruption coming their way.
He has published on RSP's website the following page. View it here

I have published the web page which is viewable at the bottom of the blog however what follows is a detailed investigation of the statements

The art of misdirection is strong in this one so lets take it as it is stated. 
"Even when it is operating at its peak (circa twenty years after reopening)"
Well that's ok then except Tony has no idea when or even if the fixed capacity as laid down in the DCO (17170 cargo ATMs + 9298 passenger ATMs + 38000 General Aviation ATMs = 64468 ATMs which is one aircraft movement every 6 minutes assuming the airport is even successful which isn't guaranteed.

However what is clear from the statement is Tony is prepared to inflict future noise and disturbance on Thanet children simply because he doesn't care one bit.

"Manston Airport will average no more than five large aircraft movements per hour"
So that's all right then? What Ramsgate residents have been used to since 1990, when Manston became Kent International Airport is in the chart below.
Clearly this shows that Manston very seldom had more than 1 flight a DAY now Tony want to inflict 5 movements an hour for 17 hours a day every day 365 days a year.
As an aside all other airports treat night time as 11PM to 7AM but not Tony.

"and will not operate any scheduled services overnight"
The reader will note the use of the word "scheduled" in use here however in the world of Cargo flights the word scheduled is seldom used as the vast majority of cargo flights are not scheduled like most passenger flights. Rather cargo flights into the UK are either belly hold passenger flights (95% of long haul passenger flights have belly hold cargo travelling into Heathrow which by volume is the largest cargo airport with 67% of all cargo into the UK) or they are chartered (non-scheduled) cargo flights arranged on an ad hoc basis when the aircraft can travel full.

An example of this in Manston's history is the African harvest where the customer determines the times the cargo is ready to be flown and the airport grants a slot based on take off and flight time. An example would be cash crops from Africa centrally collected and loaded into an aircraft chartered to fly to the destination when fully loaded
Even Sir Roger Gale understands this when he wrote in 2001 when his buddy ran Manston.

The DCO sets out the maximum capacity for aircraft movements however what the DCO doesn't do is set out the punishments for any abuses such as Night Flights which are monitored by the airport itself.
Careful to tug the heartstrings people ought to remember the British airways training flights which would also come under GA but were large aircraft going round and round for hours.
Clearly 64458 ATMs is one movement every 6 minutes

"minimal impact" what an aircraft movement every 6 minutes including  large cargo and passenger aircraft movements every 12 minutes (5 movements an hour 17 hours a day 365 days a week)
"The numbers are very small" yeah right compared to what? Heathrow, Gatwick, or New York.

Again to repeat the comment above Cargo seldom is scheduled. Most Cargo is chartered and will not fall foul of the restrictions laid out by the DCO, in fact there could be unlimited Night flights.
Interesting that Tony creates a FAQ confirming that they will be so inefficient in unloading an aircraft will take all day to get unloaded. An aircraft doesn't make any money when sitting on the ground, its money is made when it is carrying cargo.
However the DCO places no restrictions on chartered cargo flights both day and night
A nicely swerved answer however most airports impose fines on aircraft that breach the rules especially when it comes to noise and night time disturbance. The Manston DCO is remiss in that it imposes no fines at all.

Finally a word on how Manston will be operated and these are from the RSP application itself . Clearly if Tony was serious about no flights after 11pm then he would arrange for any "late" running flights to be diverted to an airport that had 24 hour operations however that has never been his intention. The 4 main airport operations needed for landing and take off are Air Traffic control, Fire and Rescue,  Airport security, and Operations



I'm sure the reader can clearly see Tony intends an airport that operated on a 24 hour basis


This is the recent page posted on the 29th July 2020




Wednesday, 29 July 2020

Memory and noise

Memory and Noise

"Manston Airport has been there for over 100 years"
"I remember the United States Airforce and their noise never bothered me"
"Its always been there and it didn't bother me"
"it only takes 30 seconds to fly over, never bothered me"

We have heard these and more for 6 years from the pro lobby however none can actually say just why it never bothered them, yet those that live under the Heathrow flightpath have complained for years about the noise and pollution from planes flying into Heathrow.
Even Sir Roger Gale spoke in the House of Commons about the effect on his own daughter who lives in Chiswick (a distance from the runway):-

 “I am not remotely unsympathetic to the concerns expressed by colleagues representing seats in west and south London. My daughter has a home in Chiswick under the flightpath to Heathrow. I am a sufficiently infrequent overnight stayer not to have become acclimatised to the air traffic, so I understand what it means, and I also have considerable concern for the quality of the air that my six-year-old grandson, Soren, will breathe during the course of his young life.
HOC link: dated 7/6/2018 

Airports National Policy Statement


So why is it the pro lobby have such fond memories of events that either occurred 60 to 70 years ago (The USAF were at Manston between 1950 and 1958. They actually left because of noise over Ramsgate) or more recently when Manston became an airport in 1989 when it became Kent International Airport (KIA).

As to the 1st it is extremely unlikely that noise events have been remembered properly, especially by such young individuals, what is remembered is perhaps an echo of what the actual event was and that it is fondly remembered is most likely because it was exciting for such a young mind. The fact is after 8 years of noise a deputation from local people, with the Ramsgate Mayor, went up to London to present a petition asking for the USAF to be removed because of the many noise complaints and I seriously doubt anyone is alive today that remembers that event because children didn't take part.

As to recent events, when folks say it never bothers them, the amount of air transport  movements bar 2004 and 2005 (which drove Planestation into receivership) has been so low as to be single events in themselves.
In fact if you look at the actual data from the Civil Aviation Authority for the last 30 years (fig 1) it is obvious just why it never bothered people, only two periods have produced more than 1 landing a day (2003 - 2005 and 2010-2011 with 2013 being an outrider as KLM started a twice daily Passenger route to Schiphol)
fig 1

 It is also clear that if RSP hit their DCO Capacity ceiling the level of noise and pollution will be nothing like Ramsgate has endured in the last 30 years.

If the same regime and disregard for rules as Infratil succeeds then the 20% of Cargo flights that arrived during the night then life in Ramsgate will be unbearable. The pro lobby will point to the DCO which clearly shows night flights aren't allowed however they were banned under Infratil as well yet they still happened.

Even Roger Gale, speaking in September 2001 (when his mate Tony Freudmann ran Manston), said the only way was Night Flights for cargo.

Saturday, 18 July 2020

Need


In the advice to the Secretary of State " SoS" (document TR020002-005347-TR020002 Final Recommendation Report to DfT) the examiners:

Examining Authority
Kelvin MacDonald BSc(Hons) FAcSS FRTPI CIHCM FRSA – Lead Member
Martin Broderick BSc MPhil FIEMA – Panel Member
Jonathan Hockley BA(Hons) DipTP MRTPI – Panel Member
Jonathan Manning BSc(Hons) MA MRTPI – Panel Member

set out a complete chapter (Chapter 5) where they discussed "Need" (pages 54-103).
Their conclusion on page 103 stated:

Given all the above evidence, the ExA concludes that the levels of freight that the Proposed Development could expect to handle are modest and could be catered for at existing airports (Heathrow, Stansted, EMA, and others if the demand existed). The ExA considers that Manston appears to offer no obvious advantages to outweigh the strong competition that such airports offer. The ExA therefore concludes that the Applicant has failed to demonstrate sufficient need for the Proposed Development, additional to (or different from) the need which is met by the provision of existing airports.

This report was written in the 3 months after the examination concluded in July 2019 and passed to the SoS for the Department of Transport "DoT" to make their decision. In January 2020 the DoT delayed the decision and then further delayed this to the 10th July. The decision was announced on the 9th July and was a Yes against the advice given by the four experts noted above.

What the Examiners would have been unable to forecast was the Coronavirus Pandemic which has decimated the aviation industry.
This collapse of short and long haul flights has has two consequences:
1. The airport which handles most air freight is Heathrow. 67% of all air freight is carried in the belly of long haul passenger planes and this has dropped by 90% and according to most experts will not recover for 3-4 years.
2. This has meant air freight will need freighter only aircraft to carry freight for the next 3-4 years providing a boost to this niche market.

The problem for freight managers is consumer confidence is still low so the demand has also dropped and most of the World will enter a recession and currently no expert can predict when this will recover.
If freighters are to be used the upside is there is plenty of slots at all the airports to cater for this usage, certainly enough to not need a new airport in the South East for the foreseeable future.

To get back to the report I will not seek to post all 50 pages but will concentrate on the conclusions, the viewer can read the full report by clicking in the link above.


5.7. CONCLUSIONS (page 98)
5.7.1. The ExA is mindful that the ANPS does not have effect in relation to an application for development consent for an airport development not comprised in an application relating to the Northwest Runway at Heathrow and associated proposals for new and reconfigured terminal capacity and, therefore, the application is examined under s105 of the PA2008.
5.7.2. Nevertheless, the ANPS remains an important and relevant consideration in the determination of such an application, particularly where it relates to London or the South East of England.
5.7.3. Government policy states that the Government is minded to be supportive of all airports which wish to make best use of their existing runways, including those in the South East (ANPS paragraph 1.39).
5.7.4. The ExA considers that the Applicant’s forecasts, when seen in the light of the historical performance of the airport seem ambitious. Previously the airport did not go above around 50,000 tonnes of cargo and 200,000 passengers a year, compared to the 340,000 tonnes and 1.4mppa forecast now.
5.7.5. The ExA accepts in this context that the investment levels proposed for the airport are at a different level to that previously spent on the site and notes anecdotal evidence that British Airways was previously in discussion with Infratil but pulled out due to a lack of investment and failure of the operator to provide a state-of-the-art facility. However, conversely SHP make reference to Wiggins Group investing £6 to 7m on new aprons and taxiways to increase freight capacity to 200,000 tonnes per annum [REP5-028].
5.7.6. Although to a certain extent it may be a cause and effect situation, it is also reasonable to suggest that the previous operators of the airport, either Wiggins Group (of which one member of the Applicant’s team was also involved) or Infratil, an experienced airport operator, would have invested more heavily had there been a reasonable prospect of this investment being repaid through increased traffic levels. While at this time the new integrators were not around, Heathrow and Gatwick were at similar levels of constraint.

Capacity
5.7.7. The third runway would clearly add to capacity substantially at London Heathrow. The ANPS states that the Government estimates that a new runway at Heathrow would result in an additional 43,000 long haul flights. This would provide more space for cargo, a greater frequency of services, and boost trade and GDP. It appears to the ExA that Heathrow would be able to accommodate the projected 3m tonnes of air freight per annum in due course and that more markets would likely be served by routes from the Northwest Runway at Heathrow, should demand exist. Heathrow is the dominant airport in the UK for air freight, and the proposed third runway would build upon this, providing significant new opportunities for bellyhold freight via new long-haul routes. While the 3m tonnes of freight would not be achieved overnight it would be a substantial uplift from the almost 1.7m tonnes carried in 2017 and supply could rise roughly with demand.
5.7.8. London Stansted has reached agreement, subject to the signing of a Section 106 Agreement with Uttlesford DC, to increase caps on the airport from 35mppa and 274,000 air movements including 20,500 air cargo movements, to 44.5mppa and 285,000 movements respectively. While a substantial part of the business at Stansted is passenger focused, the Airport clearly provides an important base for freight, with capacity for both integrator traffic (Fed-Ex) and general freight. The Applicant’s view is that Stansted airport has made a strategic choice to prioritise passengers over freight but this is not objectively supported by the evidence.
5.7.9. Stansted is clearly a busy airport and becoming busier. However, from the evidence provided there appears to be a degree of capacity left at the airport, including for freight movements with the airport forecasting a growth to some 376,000 tonnes per year by 2028 from a level of 236,892 tonnes in 2017, involving 16,000 cargo movements a year (from 10,126 in 2017) and an increasing amount of bellyhold cargo alongside the predicted growth in passenger numbers.
5.7.10. EMA is a major integrator hub with significant growth potential. Given levels of passenger throughput at the airport, it is unlikely that there will be significant strategic conflicts between passenger and cargo traffic. The ExA does not consider that there is ‘substantial circumstantial evidence’ that there is likely to be little if any scope for general cargo operators to stay overnight at EMA and it appears that the airport seeks to attract both integrator and general freight traffic. Evidence is also noted of germinative Amazon Air operations at the airport (via DHL), and the substantial new warehouse and sorting centre adjacent to the airport [REP05-029].
https://www.nwleics.gov.uk/pages/east_midlands_gateway DCO granted

Demand and forecasts
5.7.11. The ExA does not agree that zero growth forecast by the DfT is a pragmatic view due to lack of capacity; the Department does not claim to model freight in detail and have labelled it as an assumption. From the evidence provided there is no clear view of the levels that demand for air freight may grow, but levels of growth that do occur are likely to be accommodated by the proposed new runway at Heathrow, should this occur.
5.7.12. Should this not occur, there may be more demand available elsewhere, although given the preponderance of facilities in northern Europe it may be that this increases trucking levels rather than leading to a substantial growth in levels of freight being handled at other UK airports. Furthermore, growth in bellyhold at Gatwick and at other airports outside the South East may occur.
5.7.13. The Applicant’s Azimuth Report [APP-085] is a comprehensive document but the weight that the ExA can place on its forecasts is reduced by the lack of interview transcripts available, and of the size and sample frame of many of the interviewees, when considering the size of the forecasts that are generated and there is little evidence that academic and industry experts have validated the approach of the Azimuth Report. Furthermore, there is little evidence that capacity available elsewhere such as at EMA, or the impact of the proposed Northwest Runway at Heathrow have been taken into account in the production of the forecasts.
5.7.14. The Northpoint Report [REP4-031] provides a valuable alternative source to ‘back up’ the Azimuth Report. However, the limitations identified within its model, particularly those considering the scope for migrating between types of carrier and the impact of price (particularly when considering differences between bellyhold and pure freight, and trucking) appear to the ExA to be substantial limitations in the case of the Proposed Development and a more detailed model assessing such variables was not available to the ExA.
5.7.15. The forecasts of Boeing and Airbus are useful in terms of noting overall levels of global air cargo growth and provide support for the Northpoint analysis. The ExA do note however the previous considerable overestimation of the number of freighters by these aircraft manufactures.
5.7.16. The Avia Solutions Report forecast [REP3-276 report available in Library] provides a comprehensive view of the viable potential of Manston Airport. The ExA note that this report is independent; the brief from TDC did not indicate any desired outcome and required an independent assessment advising whether or not it is possible to run a viable and economically sustainable free-standing airport operation from Manston. While the report was written in 2016 this remains relatively recent and it concludes that, even with a generous assumption over air freight captured from trucking, airport operations at Manston are very unlikely to be financially viable in the longer term, and almost certainly not possible in the period to 2031.
5.7.17. While the Avia Solutions Report’s conclusions were based on viability, this arises in the report from the authors’ assessment of potential and forecasts for the airport – in other words, the need for the development. Also of note is that the report considered capacity squeezes and a major retail group, akin to Amazon basing themselves at the airport; neither possibility led to a different conclusion. Due to the independence and depth of this report, the ExA place significant weight on its findings.
5.7.18. On the basis of the evidence provided, the ExA considers that the predominance of bellyhold freight in the UK market as opposed to pure freight is to a large extent a by-product of the dominance of Heathrow in the UK aviation market. The effect of the size of Heathrow, and the vast range of destinations that are available from this hub airport have led to the strength of bellyhold freight for UK purposes, particularly when coupled with the relative ease of access to the large hub airports and pure freight airports in northern Europe. Trucking is a necessary mechanism to complete this overall market pattern and allows access to the population and manufacturing capacity of northern Europe. In the ExA’s view air freight would still primarily be attracted to the airports with the widest possible global networks for reasons of economies of scale.
5.7.19. It also appears logical to the ExA that bellyhold freight would be significantly cheaper than pure freight and that this in itself also helps to explain the dominance of bellyhold over pure freight, with much pure freight dedicated to express integrators who can charge more for express delivery times.
5.7.20. The Applicant considers that Manston could act in a complementary role to bellyhold freight at Heathrow and integrator freight at EMA.
5.7.21. However, the ExA’s analysis of the predominance of bellyhold freight in the UK (above) suggests that there is little complementary role to be had – while some oversized freight items may be too large or bulky for bellyhold travel, the vast majority of general freight can be carried in bellyholds.
5.7.22. A useful point is made by the Applicant noting that the cargo industry is fundamentally changing, and that this change needs an innovative response which cannot be provided at constrained South East airports. However, the change proposed by the Applicant appears to be largely based on new integrators who would offer similar comprehensive delivery patterns and structures to established integrators but with less strict time restrictions. In the view of the ExA then the likely locations for such integrators are likely to be closer to the centre of the country than Manston. While Manston can clearly offer good quick access to London and much of the South East*, a more central positions within the UK offers more potential customers than just London and the South East can provide; within a three hour drive from Manston only the South East and parts of the East of England can be reached, whereas most of England and Wales is within three hours of EMA.
* Editor's note: The conclusion (tempered by the second sentence is slightly odd considering Heathrow is served by the M4 and M25, Gatwick by the M23 (with the M25 20 minutes away), and the East Midlands by the 8 lane M1. Manston is dual carriageway until the Hoath Way junction on the M2 some 35 miles away with a further 10 miles to the M25 and Dartford river crossing which for those in the area hold ups are a regular occurrence especially at the river crossing.

Summary
5.7.23. The ExA is not convinced that there is a substantial gap between capacity and demand for general air freight within the South East at present. Capacity is available or could be available at other airports within the South East or at other airports within reach of the South East should the demand exist, and such capacity could largely be achieved relatively simply through permitted development rights or existing facilities.
5.7.24. The ExA is of the opinion that general air freight would continue to be well served in the UK with spare capacity at Stansted in the short term (to 2030) and the proposed Northwest Runway at Heathrow in the longer term, and that new integrators are more likely to wish to be sited in a more central location. If constructed and operated then the Proposed Development could carry out a role within the market focused on perishables and oversized niche freight as previously but it seems unlikely that tonnage achieved will be significantly more than previously handled. Without the proposed Northwest Runway at Heathrow more demand may be available but the ExA’s conclusions relating to new integrators, that is that they would be more likely to base themselves in a more central location to their other logistical operations, remain valid.
5.7.25. The Applicant argues that price is not the only determinant in where freight business may go – factors such as facilities, speed, handling efficiency and location all count too. While the ExA agree with this view, it seems logical to assume that price is the main component in any decision made and that bellyhold freight will generally be cheaper. If demand were present, then facilities could be constructed at other airports where speed and handling efficient could be largely matched to the Applicant’s plan and the ExA is not convinced that the location of the Proposed Development is entirely favourable.
5.7.26. In terms of passenger traffic, the full extent of the Azimuth Report forecasts [APP-085] may be difficult to reach. However, the ExA considers that there would be a market for passenger traffic from the airport although the extent to which such traffic would be viable for the airport operators has not been assessed in depth.
5.7.27. GA was not examined in depth in the Examination, and the Azimuth Report [APP-085] does not cover the subject in detail. Nevertheless, the ExA notes the support for GA facilities in the APF and the NPPF (paragraph 104) and the representations received on this matter.
5.7.28. Appendix 1 of the Applicant’s Overall Summary of Need Case [APP11-013] states that little weight should be afforded to the submissions of SHP given the withdrawal of this company’s objection to the Proposed Development *. In this context however the ExA note the comments of York Aviation, which states that they strongly refute criticism of their work by the Applicant in its written answers and consider that they have “provided substantial and well evidenced responses throughout the process” [REP11-070].
* Editor's note The request by SHP to withdraw its representations was made less than five hours before the Examination closed at 23:59 on 9 July 2019. On that basis, the ExA determined that it was received too late in the Examination for the ExA to properly consider the request or the implications for other Interested Parties. SHP’s representations therefore remain part of the Examination Library. This determination has been communicated to IPs via the s51 advice pages on the National Infrastructure Planning website.
 
Given all the above evidence, the ExA concludes that the levels of freight that the Proposed Development could expect to handle are modest and could be catered for at existing airports (Heathrow, Stansted, EMA, and others if the demand existed). The ExA considers that Manston appears to offer no obvious advantages to outweigh the strong competition that such airports offer. The ExA therefore concludes that the Applicant has failed to demonstrate sufficient need for the Proposed Development, additional to (or different from) the need which is met by the provision of existing airports.